At FinancialMediaGuide, we view the downgrades of Knight-Swift, Schneider and J.B. Hunt not as a local decision by one bank, but as an indicator of deep problems in the US freight market. UBS has made it clear: the recovery of prices and demand in this industry in 2026 will not happen, and optimism is postponed for at least a year. That is why our analytical column in Prime Focus pays special attention to the regulatory and structural factors that directly affect investor confidence in transport companies.
UBS has reduced its forecast for contract rates growth for transportation to 2% in 2026, while the market had previously expected a much more noticeable rise. Analysts now associate a stronger move, about 7%, only with 2027. This means that carriers will exist in an environment of compressed margins and a lack of price support for longer than expected. For Knight-Swift, Schneider and J.B. Hunt, this translates into lower earnings estimates and a decline in investment attractiveness.
At FinancialMediaGuide, we see this not just as a revision of individual forecasts, but as a signal of cyclical weakness in the industry. Even the Fed rate cut that many had hoped for will not be a catalyst. The experience of 2024 has already shown that cheap credit does not revive the transport industry if fundamental demand from construction, retail and exports remains weak.
UBS has shifted its valuation system to 2027, applying lower multiples than the cycle average. This is an acknowledgement that the industry’s recovery will be delayed and partial. For investors, this means limited upside potential – between 5% and 15% over the next year – and no compelling reason to pursue a “buy” strategy for these stocks.
Our conclusion is simple: the US transport industry is entering a period when even leading players are losing their status as undisputed market favorites. With a slow recovery and increased competition, investors should brace themselves for carrier profitability to remain under pressure and for their valuations to remain sensitive to any changes in the macroeconomic environment.
