The announcement of Social Security’s annual inflation adjustment to benefits has been delayed due to the government shutdown, but the agency responsible for handling the benefit increase has set a date for releasing the data next week.
Social Security benefits undergo a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) every year, which updates benefit amounts to account for inflation over the last year. The size of the annual COLA is determined by the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) over the prior year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI on a monthly basis to gauge how much higher inflation has pushed consumer prices. However, the September CPI data that was supposed to be released Oct. 15 and complete the COLA calculation was delayed by the government shutdown.
The BLS announced that it recalled some workers who were furloughed due to the government shutdown to complete the CPI report and allow the COLA to be released. The BLS will now release the September CPI on Friday, Oct. 24, while the Social Security Administration will announce the 2026 COLA the same day.
SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFICIARIES EXPECTED TO GET BIGGER COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENT IN 2026
Experts anticipate that the 2026 COLA will raise Social Security recipients’ benefit payments by more than the 2.5% COLA that was implemented for 2025.
The Senior Citizens League estimated last month that the COLA for 2026 will be 2.7%, which would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by $54 from $2,009 to $2,062.
TSCL noted that its estimate is higher than what was projected at the outset of this year, when it estimated there would be a 2.1% COLA, because “inflation is substantially higher” than its model anticipated.
TAX CHANGES WILL MAKE SOCIAL SECURITY GO INSOLVENT SOONER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE
The group also noted that a 2.7% COLA would be about average from a historical standpoint, as the annual benefit adjustments have averaged 2.6% over the last 20 years. The highest COLA of that period was 8.7% in 2023, while the lowest were in 2010 and 2011 when the COLA was zero.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) developed its own forecast for Social Security’s 2026 COLA, which estimates the annual inflation adjustment will be slightly higher at 2.8%.
